We’re down to the final 10. Following Week 8 of the 2019 college football season, 10 teams remain undefeated after we lost Wisconsin and Boise State in two exciting upset games.
The Big Ten is still out front — though it took a hit with the Badgers’ loss — with three unbeaten teams still standing: Ohio State, Penn State and Minnesota. The SEC and Big 12 each have two teams still undefeated with Alabama and LSU, along with Oklahoma and Baylor, respectively. And then the ACC, Sun Belt and AAC have one undefeated team apiece. The Mountain West disappeared from the list last week, and the Pac-12 hasn’t been around for a while.
With fewer teams on the list as the top teams dominate, it’s getting more and more challenging to correctly predict which ones will keep their perfect records alive and which ones will finally get that first L. But that’s not stopping us from trying.
Here are our predictions for how each unbeaten team will play in Week 9 and whether or not they’ll keep their perfect records alive. The predictions are based on their upcoming opponents, how they’ve played so far, the AP and Coaches polls and ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.
(All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
No. 1/1 Alabama Crimson Tide 7-0
Wins: Duke, New Mexico State, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee
Chance of winning out: 30.8 percent
Week 9 game: Arkansas (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
Alabama is not in trouble yet with quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Tua Tagovailoa’s ankle injury last week against Tennessee — even though its chance to win out dropped about eight points since last week. Nick Saban said Tagovailoa had surgery Sunday for the same injury but to the other ankle he dealt with last season, but he’s unsure about the timeline for his return. But the good news for the Crimson Tide is after the Razorbacks, they have a bye to prepare for LSU and are hoping Tua will be back for that one.
In the meantime, Mac Jones is expected to step in as the starter against Arkansas, and as long as he gets the ball in the general vicinity of standout wide receivers DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, they’ll be able to make the same type of plays we’re used to. Arkansas’ defense is nearly last in the SEC and doesn’t stand a chance, even if 31.5-point favorite Alabama doesn’t throw the ball once.
No. 2/3 LSU Tigers 7-0
Wins: Georgia Southern, Texas, Northwestern State, Vanderbilt, Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State
Chance of winning out: 8.9 percent
Week 9 game: Auburn (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
Wow, LSU is looking good. Its defense is doing what it usually does so well, and its offense is still on fire, as quarterback Joe Burrow has taken control of the 2019 Heisman Trophy race. His accuracy is exceptional, and his 79.4 completion percentage is No. 1 in the country by more than three points. Auburn freshman quarterback Bo Nix may get to that level some day, but he’s not there right now, and the team’s run game doesn’t look like it will be able to break through.
AP Photo/Gerald Herbert
On an interesting note, their defenses are nearly statistically identical.
Auburn defense PPG: 17.1
LSU defense PPG: 20.0
Auburn yards allowed: 319.0 (224.7 passing, 94.3 rushing)
LSU yards allowed: 319.4 (226.1 passing, 93.3 rushing)
But will Auburn be able to pull off the upset? Probably not, just because LSU’s offense is even more dangerous than its defense. As we saw last week against a good Florida team, LSU was able to run away to a 14-point win, while to compare, Auburn fell to the Gators earlier this month, 24-13. LSU is a 10.5-point favorite in Death Valley — “where opponents’ dreams come to die” — and this should be a good one.
No. 3/4 Ohio State Buckeyes 7-0
Wins: Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, Miami (Ohio), Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern
Chance of winning out: 47.7 percent
Week 9 game: Wisconsin (Noon ET, FOX)
Undefeated after Week 9: No
This is when the Buckeyes’ lose that mid-season Big Ten game, except unlike in past years, it will be to a ranked team that’s actually pretty good — its Week 8 game notwithstanding — and less of a shock (compared with the 49-20 loss to Purdue in 2018). Ohio State has not looked beatable this season, but it also hasn’t played anyone capable of beating it. Quarterback and Heisman candidate Justin Fields and running back J.K. Dobbins are used to doing whatever they want, and the offense ranks third in points per game (49.7) and fifth in yards per game (526.7). But the Buckeyes also have yet to face a tenacious defense that’s similarly balanced. (Michigan State held on through the beginning of the second quarter earlier this month before the Buckeyes blew that game open for a 24-point win — though that tied their smallest margin of victory this year.)
Enter Wisconsin, a team with a more-than-capable offense and whose defense is the best in the country but just decided to stay in Madison last weekend while the rest of the team lost to Illinois. If the team that lost shows up against Ohio State, forget all of this because it’s going to be another atrocious blowout for the Buckeyes. But if the Badgers’ defense — the one that has four shutouts this season and leads the nation in basically everything (7.6 points/game, 193.9 total yards/game, 135.4 passing yards/game, 58.4 rushing yards/game) — returns, Ohio State will have to adjust to its first real test of the season, and we’re thinking it won’t work out.
But this shouldn’t be a blowout either way, as Ohio State is a 14.5-point favorite, and it doesn’t matter that its chance to win out went up 15 points since last week. It will probably be a one-score game and could easily come down to the final seconds, but we predict the Buckeyes will be on the wrong end this time.
No. 4/2 Clemson Tigers 7-0
Wins: Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Charlotte, North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville
Chance of winning out: 71.1 percent
Week 9 game: Boston College (7:30 p.m. ET, ACCN)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
It’s a good thing the ACC is not the strongest conference because if Clemson’s opponents were better, it probably wouldn’t still be on this list. The Tigers’ defense is generally just fine and holding teams to only 256.0 yards a game (No. 5 nationally), and linebacker Isaiah Simmons is fifth in the conference with six sacks and sixth with 59 total tackles so far. Fans shouldn’t be worried about the defense — at least, not when quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads the ACC with eight interceptions, is 40th nationally with a 63.7 completion percentage and has tumbled into obscurity in the Heisman race. Clemson struggled in the first half against Louisville last week before taking off, and it shouldn’t have an issue putting away BC as a whopping 34-point favorite. It shouldn’t.
No. 5/5 Oklahoma Sooners 7-0
Wins: Houston, South Dakota, UCLA, Texas Tech, Kansas, Texas, West Virginia
Chance of winning out: 34.0 percent
Week 9 game: Kansas State (Noon ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
It doesn’t look like anyone in the Big 12 can stop Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma, and the Wildcats aren’t coming up with the upset this week. Even if Kansas’ offense could find a way to keep up in a shootout, its defense — which is one of the better Big 12 ones giving up 18.7 points and 347.7 yards per game — won’t be able to stop the Sooners’ explosive offense, which ranks No. 1 nationally with 612.9 yards per game and 50.4 points per game.
As we saw against Texas, even when Hurts has a mediocre day, they have plenty of players ready to step up. And if the Wildcats’ secondary remains strong, Hurts is also their leading rusher. Obviously, that means by containing the Heisman candidate and transfer from Alabama, they could do some damage. But so far, that’s proved a nearly impossible task.
Oklahoma is a 23.5-point favorite.
No. 6/6 Penn State Nittany Lions 7-0
Wins: Idaho, Buffalo, Pitt, Maryland, Purdue, Iowa, Michigan
Chance of winning out: 6.3 percent
Week 9 game: Michigan State (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
The Nittany Lions came very close to blowing all of their early 21-0 lead against Michigan last week. But their defense stepped up, made a critical stop on basically the goal line and returned to this list with a 7-0 record. But somehow this week, they’re only 6.5-point favorites against Michigan State. Have you seen the Spartans with the football this season? They’re not great. It doesn’t really matter Michigan State won the last two years against Penn State either because the Nittany Lions are good, Michigan State’s offense is not and the Spartans’ defense isn’t quite holding down the fort the way it was expected to.
No. 14/14 Baylor Bears 7-0
Wins: Stephen F. Austin, UTSA, Rice, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Chance of winning out: 1.6 percent
Week 9 game: Bye
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes (duh)
Admittedly, Baylor has remained on this list much longer than we expected. It crushed Oklahoma State last week and is now on a bye before taking on West Virginia in Week 10.
No. 16/17 SMU Mustangs 7-0
Wins: Arkansas State, North Texas, Texas State, TCU, South Florida, Tulsa, Temple
Chance of winning out: 4.1 percent
Week 9 game: Houston (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
SMU’s offense is no joke and has momentum after lighting up the Owls last week. Led by quarterback Shane Buechele — who set career-highs against Temple with 457 passing yards and six touchdowns — the Mustangs’ offense most recently had 655 yards against the Owls and against the only ranked opponent they’ve played so far in then-No. 25 TCU, they still put up 406 total yards. They’re seventh in the nation with 521.1 yards per game and sixth in scoring (44.3 PPG). And while Buechele ranks among the best quarterbacks, the offense is fairly balanced with running back Xavier Jones leading the ground game, which averages 205.7 yards.
With Boise State losing in Week 8, SMU is now the highest ranked Group of Five team, and it seems in position to stay that way at least through Week 9 against Houston, which is, in a controversial and unprecedented move, supposedly tanking. On the road, SMU should return to this list as 13.5-point favorites against the Cougars.
No. 17/16 Minnesota Golden Gophers 7-0
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Wins: South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers
Chance of winning out: 0.1 percent
Week 9 game: Maryland (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
While it’s far from shocking that Minnesota blew out Rutgers last week, the Golden Gophers being 7-0 is a bit unexpected. Their schedule is very much in their favor with five straight games against teams in the bottom half of the Big Ten — a stretch that ends with Maryland this week. After that, it’s going to get significantly more challenging with Penn State and Iowa. But for now, Minnesota is cruising through the first part of its conference schedule, and given that Maryland hasn’t been able to stop much of anything this season, the Golden Gophers should have little trouble getting the W.
Minnesota is a 16.5-point favorite.
No. 24/24 Appalachian State Mountaineers 6-0
Wins: East Tennessee State, Charlotte, North Carolina, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, UL Monroe
Chance of winning out: 9.6 percent
Week 9 game: South Alabama (Noon ET, ESPNU)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
We’re just going to continue saying it: Don’t ever pick against the Mountaineers, unless you really have to. And even then, reconsider, especially when they’re 26.5-point favorites on the road this week. They’ll be back.