The Lok Sabha election 2019 has reached its fag end with the final and seventh phase of the elections to conclude on Sunday. More than a month after the seven-phase elections began, we are now finally in the slog overs. Polling will be conducted across seven states and one Union Territory on 19 May comprising the remaining 59 constituencies out of 543.

Once polling concludes at around 6 pm, various national pollsters — News18-IPSOS, India Today-Axis, Times Now-CNX, NewsX-Neta, Republic-Jan Ki Baat, Republic-CVoter, ABP-CSDS and Today’s Chanakya — will release their predictions after 6 pm on 19 May (Sunday) before the final results are announced by the Election Commission on 23 May. The numbers for the exit polls, however, will only start coming in once voting ends in phase seven and the Election Commission of India gives the go-ahead for airing exit polls.

An election exit poll, not always known to be correct, is a poll of voters taken immediately after they exit the polling stations.  Usually, private surveying firms or institutions working for newspapers and broadcasters ask voters whom they actually voted for and assuming that they have got the correct answers, they predict the result trends. Election predictions based on exit and opinion polls have gained much traction in the past decade with television’s reach increasing in India alongside the mushrooming of digital news portals. It is important to also note that predictions sometimes hit the bull’s eye (for example, in 2014 Today’s Chanakya had projected 340 seats for NDA and 291 for the BJP), and sometimes, pollsters also get it horribly wrong.

Voters stand in a queue during the Lok Sabha poll. File image. PTI

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Pollsters will attempt to answer questions like which state voted for whom or who will come to power or whether Narendra Modi will return as the prime minister for the second consecutive term or how well did the Uttar Pradesh gathbandhan (SP-BSP combine) fare in these elections. However, all of these analyses are only predictions and estimate how the country’s electorate has voted.

The Election Commission in March issued an advisory to the media saying exit polls can only be telecast after the final phase of polling for the Lok Sabha elections ends on 19 May. The advisory is also applicable for Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim.

Here is a look at the EC advisory on exit polls:

– Exit polls can only be telecast on 19 May, half an hour after the last phase of Lok Sabha election concludes, which is around 6 pm.

– For the first time, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the advisory covered websites and social media platforms.

– The Election Commission guidelines also say that TV, radio channels, cable networks, websites and social media platforms should ensure that the contents of programmes telecast/broadcast/displayed by them during the 48-hour period before the end of polls in each phase “do not contain any material, including views or appeals by participants that may be construed as promoting or prejudicing the prospect” of any particular party or candidate.

– “Any violation by member broadcasters reported to the News Broadcasting Standards Authority (NBSA) by the Election Commission will be dealt with by the NBSA under its regulations,” the EC said.

– The EC guidelines also bar broadcasters from airing any final, formal and definite results until such results are formally announced by the Election Commission of India, unless such results are carried with clear disclaimer that they are unofficial or incomplete or partial results or projections which should not be taken as final results.

– The election body also directed newspapers and TV channels that they should disclose the sample size of the electorate, the details of their methodology, the margin of error and the background of the polling agency which had conducted the surveys.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission had reportedly asked Twitter to take down an exit poll-related tweet. The EC’s move came after it received certain “complaint”, sources aware of the development said Thursday, adding that the user later removed the tweet. The sources, however, did not specify the complaint. “There is no such general order issued by ECI today. Only one case was reported to us today which the user himself removed,” a senior functionary said.

The move came a day after it issued a show-cause notice to three media outlets for allegedly publishing a survey “predicting results” of Lok Sabha elections.

Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act states that “no person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicise by means of the print or electronic media… the result of any exit poll during such period… In case of a general election, the period may commence from the beginning of the hours fixed for poll on the first day of poll and continue till half an hour after closing of the poll in all the states and union territories.”

The section also prescribes that any person, who contravenes the provisions of this section, shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with fine or with both.

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