2017 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Amari Cooper highlights this season’s third-year receivers – CBSSports.com

The NFL is a copycat league, and when something good happens, you often see teams try to replicate that success the following year. That could be the case with the wide receiver class of 2015. 

The year before, in 2014, we might have had the greatest collection of receiver talent ever in one draft class with guys like
Odell Beckham
,
Mike Evans
,
Brandin Cooks
,
Jarvis Landry
,
Sammy Watkins
,
Allen Robinson
,
Davante Adams
,
Donte Moncrief
,
Kelvin Benjamin
,
John Brown
,
Martavis Bryant
,
Jordan Matthews
and
Quincy Enunwa
. Those are some of the best receivers in the NFL now, and some still have the chance to develop into stars. 

Five receivers were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft that season (Watkins, Evans, Beckham, Cooks and Benjamin), which was the most since 2009. And seeing Beckham, Evans, Benjamin, Landry, Watkins and Matthews play well as rookies set the tone for the NFL Draft in 2015.

That looks like a mistake. 

There were six receivers taken in the first round of the NFL Draft in 2015 with
Amari Cooper
,
Kevin White
,
DeVante Parker
,
Nelson Agholor
,
Breshad Perriman
and
Phillip Dorsett
. Cooper has been excellent with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, but White, Parker and Perriman have struggled with injuries and inconsistent play, while Agholor and Dorsett have been total busts.

Going past the first round, we’ve already seen
Devin Smith
suffer two ACL tears,
Dorial Green-Beckham
on the verge of being cut by his second team (he will actually compete with Agholor for a roster spot in Philadelphia) and three receivers already change positions — 
Ty Montgomery
(running back),
Tony Lippett
(cornerback) and
Neal Sterling
(tight end). It might not be fair to call this receiver class a failure just yet, but it’s coming close.

Now, all is not lost. Parker and Perriman have drawn rave reviews so far this offseason, so they could click in their third years, which is the season when many receivers in NFL history have taken the next step in their careers. And three other receivers from this draft class could be headed for breakout campaigns in their third season, including
Jamison Crowder
,
Stefon Diggs
and J.J. Nelson.

Additionally, two undrafted receivers who are entering their third season in 2017 have the chance to be breakout candidates with
Willie Snead
and
Cameron Meredith
. And we could still see other guys step up like White,
Tyrell Williams
,
Tyler Lockett
and
Devin Funchess
.

The third-year receiver theory is something that some Fantasy owners still buy into but others ignore it. I’m still a believer, and I’ve done numerous interviews with receivers over the years, who say this is the season when receivers tend to “get it.”

Some of the best receivers in the NFL, past and present, have had a breakout year in their third seasons, including Evans,
DeAndre Hopkins
, Davante Adams, T.Y. Hilton, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Cris Carter, Terrell Owens and Keyshawn Johnson. Hall of Famers like Carter and Jerry Rice are among those who have told me they agree that the third season for a receiver is important because of development. 

Now, this doesn’t mean a rookie or second-year receiver can’t be a star. Former Baltimore receiver Steve Smith was one dissenter who told me he doesn’t believe it takes three years for a receiver to develop. But the consensus is a receiver’s third season is when a certain comfort factor happens with understanding routes, reading defenses and getting a rapport with his quarterback, among other things.

Evans said he “absolutely” improved in his third season, and Snead said this is the best he’s felt with his play, as well as the timing being right with his opportunity to have a career year.

“I feel like it’s my time,” Snead said. “I just have to make the most of it.”

The receivers of that 2015 class might have struggled through their first two seasons, but in 2017 we could see several breakout performances that would be great for Fantasy owners. 

Third-year receivers

Tier 1 – Definite starter: Amari Cooper

Cooper was the No. 22 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues as a rookie and No. 12 last year. But we hope he can do even better this season, and his production has trended in the right direction for his first two years. His biggest obstacle has been teammate
Michael Crabtree
getting more targets and touchdowns each of the past two seasons, and Cooper hasn’t been a red-zone weapon with only two touchdowns inside the 20 in his career and no catches inside the 10-yard line over that span. We’d love to see a bump in both of those areas, and another couple of touchdowns could easily push Cooper into the top 10. Cooper is worth drafting in Round 2 in most leagues. 

Tier 2 – Potential starters: Jamison Crowder, Willie Snead, Stefon Diggs

Crowder was the No. 30 Fantasy receiver last year in standard leagues when he was the No. 3 receiver for the Redskins behind
DeSean Jackson
and
Pierre Garcon
. Those two are gone now, taking with them 216 targets, 135 catches, 2,046 yards and seven touchdowns. 
Terrelle Pryor
was added as a free agent, and the Redskins are hopeful
Josh Doctson
, who struggled with injuries as a rookie last year, can step up. But even if those two are great, as well as tight end
Jordan Reed
, we should still see Crowder have a career season. It’s doubtful he scores more than seven touchdowns, but 75 catches and 1,000 yards won’t be a stretch. He’s a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues and is worth drafting no later than Round 6.

Brandin Cooks is gone, and Snead now has the chance to be featured even more for
Drew Brees
as the starter opposite
Michael Thomas
. The Saints brought in
Ted Ginn
as a free agent, but Snead should have the chance for a career season, which also happens to be a contract year. Snead’s also no stranger to third-year breakouts. He did that with 106 catches for 1,516 yards and 15 touchdowns as a junior at Ball State. Last year, Snead got off to a great start with 14 catches for 226 yards and two touchdowns on 17 targets in his first two games before hurting his toe, which lingered all year. He’s healthy now and is worth drafting as a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver no later than Round 6.

We hope this is the season Diggs puts it all together because he’s had flashes of brilliance in each of the past two years but has been far from consistent. In 2016, Diggs had four games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league and five games with four points or less. The same happened in 2015 with four games of at least 10 points and six games with four points or less. He’s also struggled with injuries with six missed games over the past two years. We hope he’s healthy this season and can have a breakout campaign, but the Vikings offense, with
Sam Bradford
at quarterback, lowers his upside. He’s only worth drafting with a mid-round pick in the majority of leagues, but his value is slightly higher in PPR. 

Tier 3 – Will be drafted: DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman, Cameron Meredith, J.J. Nelson, Tyrell Williams

It’s easy to get excited about offseason hype because players, especially talented ones, can look great in shorts and without pads. But there’s reason to be optimistic about Parker given his pedigree as the former No. 14 overall selection from Louisville, and all the reports so far have been glowing. The Miami Herald reported in May that Parker has been “so impressive this offseason he has coaches hopeful he can finally develop into the dominant threat the Dolphins were expecting” in 2015. The report also said Parker is healthy and “going hard during his workouts.” His outlook would have been better if
Kenny Stills
left as a free agent, but even with Stills, Jarvis Landry and the addition of
Julius Thomas
, we still expect a big year for Parker. Parker is worth drafting as a low-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in Round 8 in the majority of leagues. 

Meredith has the chance for a lot of production because of a lack of talent at the receiver position in Chicago, especially if White continues to deal with health issues. The Bears added
Markus Wheaton
,
Kendall Wright
and
Victor Cruz
this offseason, but Meredith should be their No. 1 receiver after his performance in 2016. He had seven games with double digits in Fantasy points last year, including four in a row to close the season. Meredith had six games with at least eight targets, and he scored at least 10 Fantasy points in a standard league in five of those outings. The quarterback situation in Chicago could be dicey with
Mike Glennon
and Mitchell Trubisky, but Meredith should see well over 100 targets, which puts him in the conversation as a No. 4 Fantasy receiver with top 30 upside. He’s worth a late-round pick in all leagues, especially if the thumb injury he sustained in early June is fine, as expected, for training camp. 

I was excited about Nelson when the offseason started because of Fitzgerald’s potential retirement and the uncertainty with Brown over his health. But since Fitzgerald is committed to play, and Brown (thankfully) is back to full strength, that should lower the value for Nelson this year. Nelson still has the chance for some big moments this season, and we saw in 2016 that he can play well when he has enough targets. He had five games last year with at least seven targets and had either 75 receiving yards or a touchdown in each of those outings. He also closed the season with a touchdown in four of his final five games. Nelson is easily the No. 3 receiver when everyone is healthy, but he can still be productive with
Carson Palmer
playing behind Fitzgerald and Brown. Nelson is worth a late-round pick in all leagues. 

Perriman has done everything right this offseason, but it might not matter after the Ravens added
Jeremy Maclin
in June. That should limit the upside for Perriman, who will be No. 3 on the depth chart behind Maclin and
Mike Wallace
. We still expect Perriman to have his best season in the NFL, but that’s not saying much after he missed his rookie season in 2015 with a broken leg and had minimal production as a sophomore in 2016. He will likely have several splash plays in his third year, but it’s hard to expect him to be consistent, especially playing behind Maclin and Wallace, plus the addition of
Danny Woodhead
out of the backfield. Perriman is still worth drafting with a late-round pick, but he should be the third Ravens receiver off the board in the majority of leagues. We had high expectations for Perriman this year, but the addition of Maclin unfortunately lowers his breakout potential.

Williams was the No. 14 Fantasy receiver last year in standard leagues, but he benefitted with Allen going down in Week 1 with a torn ACL and
Travis Benjamin
battling a knee injury all year. This season, not only is Allen expected to be back at 100 percent, but the Chargers also selected
Mike Williams
at No. 7 overall in the NFL Draft. Along with
Hunter Henry
,
Antonio Gates
and Benjamin, that’s a lot of mouths to feed when everyone is healthy. Tyrell Williams is still worth a late-round flier in the majority of leagues, but his upside is clearly limited after his standout performance in 2016. If Allen can return to form and Mike Williams gets significant playing time, you can guarantee a regression for Tyrell Williams in his third season. 

Tier 4 – On the bubble: Tyler Lockett, Kevin White, Devin Funchess

Lockett is expected to be fine from last year’s broken leg, which he sustained in Week 16, but he still has plenty to prove before Fantasy owners can trust him. He played great as a rookie in 2015, but a good portion of his production that season came after
Jimmy Graham
injured his knee in Week 12 and was lost for the year. Without Graham, Lockett had 23 catches for 318 yards and three touchdowns, which was nearly half of his production in 2015 over the final five games. Graham was healthy last year, and Lockett suffered with a sophomore slump. We hope he can rebound this year, but he’ll still be third at best for targets behind Graham and
Doug Baldwin
. And with Seattle hoping to run the ball more, it could be hard for Lockett to have a breakout campaign. He’s only worth drafting with a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

White was the first receiver taken in this draft class, but he’s been limited to four games over two seasons because of a broken leg and ligament damage in his ankle. He has yet to score a touchdown in the NFL, and he’s still not 100 percent as of May. If he can get healthy, as we said with Meredith, there’s a chance for him to make plenty of plays in this offense. But Fantasy owners definitely need to see him perform in training camp and the preseason first before committing anything more than a late-round flier in deeper leagues on him. And it wouldn’t be a shock to see him fall behind Wheaton and Wright on the depth chart if he’s not healthy by the end of July.

There’s a chance for Funchess to play well for the Panthers this season. Even with the addition of
Christian McCaffrey
and
Curtis Samuel
, Funchess could still be a significant contributor in Carolina this year. Ginn is gone, which opens up targets down the field, and Kelvin Benjamin has struggled with his conditioning this offseason. That could help Funchess earn more targets and have a third-year breakout campaign. Of course,
Cam Newton
is dealing with shoulder surgery, which limits the amount of time he and Funchess can improve their rapport. And this is still a conservative passing offense, which also has
Greg Olsen
. Funchess is  only worth drafting with a late-round pick in deeper leagues, but he could be a waiver-wire addition during the year.